We present a novel approach to probabilistic time series forecasting that combines state space models with deep learning. By parametrizing a per-time-series linear state space model with a jointly-learned recurrent neural network, our method retains desired properties of state space models such as data efficiency and interpretability, while making use of the ability to learn complex patterns from raw data offered by deep learning approaches. Our method scales gracefully from regimes where little training data is available to regimes where data from millions of time series can be leveraged to learn accurate models. We provide qualitative as well as quantitative results with the proposed method, showing that it compares favorably to the state-of-the-art.

Structured state space models (SSMs), the core engine behind prominent neural networks such as S4 and Mamba, are linear dynamical systems adhering to a specified structure, most notably diagonal. In contrast to typical neural network modules, whose parameterizations are real, SSMs often use complex parameter-izations. Theoretically explaining the benefits of complex parameterizations for SSMs is an open problem. The current paper takes a step towards its resolution, by establishing formal gaps between real and complex diagonal SSMs.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Transformer-based architectures have been proven successful in detecting 3D objects from point clouds.

Generative modeling of multivariate time series has remained challenging partly due to the complex, non-deterministic dynamics across long-distance time steps. In this paper, we propose deep probabilistic methods that combine state-space models (SSMs) with transformer architectures. In contrast to previously proposed SSMs, our approaches use attention mechanism to model non-Markovian dynamics in the latent space and avoid recurrent neural networks entirely. We also extend our models to include several layers of stochastic variables organized in a hierarchy for further expressiveness. Compared to transformer models, ours are probabilistic, non-autoregressive, and capable of generating diverse long-term forecasts with accounted uncertainty. Extensive experiments show that our models consistently outperform competitive baselines on various tasks and datasets, including time series forecasting and human motion prediction.

Moreover, CNNs and Transformers struggle to capture global degradation due to their limited receptive fields.